![]() One: May's New Home Sales were an upside shocker in sporting their second-best month-over-month percentage gain (+10.7%) in nearly two years, perhaps as folks move to lock in still relatively low fixed mortgage rates. Such clearly recessive negativity herein noted (in other words, as ignored by the balance of the FinWorld at large), there were two bright spots for the Econ Baro this past week. So just for the IMF crew to review, in REAL StateSide terms: The Bloomy quote therein is ascribed to the "On What Planet is the IMF Living? Dept.": Speaking of the Econ Baro, here 'tis (blue line) with the rightmost relief rally for the S&P (red line). More so, as you regular readers know, should the Economic Barometer be the harbinger of a "no growth" Q2 Earnings Season, that puts S&P 2900 on the table as the "live" price/earnings ratio reverts - per its historical wont - from today's 31.3x to the mean of 22.3x. Further, the 3600-3200 support zone has yet to be tested. Moreover - this relief rally notwithstanding - the S&P futures contract finds its linear regression trend (21-day basis) reinforcing its negativity such there we sense there's not much upside "umph" left in the S&P pump. 402 points below smooth valuation line." Add to that - with the S&P now up to 3912 - it nonetheless remains "textbook oversold", although such condition can be fully unwound come Monday. Specific to the S&P's relief rally, 'twas well-anticipated throughout the daily Prescient Commentary of late, as penned back on 17 June that ".by our MoneyFlow page, the 5-day measure suggests the S&P 'ought be' +118 points above its present level of 3667 (at 3785). Which in turn (for you WestPalmBeachers down there) means for every $1 invested in the S&P, there's just 63¢ available from the entire liquid money supply to pay you upon capitulation. the present M2 level of "only" $21.7 trillion. Yes it flies in the face of functionality, but even as the light-bulb of perceived wealth flickers ever dimmer on Wall Street, Gold is just not garnering the bid, yet.īut from the "Just Beware Dept." (for those of you scoring at home), the S&P 500's +4% relief rally this past week now places the Index's market capitalization at $34.3 trillion vs. ![]() In fact from the 2089 high to Gold's settling the week yesterday (Friday) at 1828 is a decline of -12%. 'Course, it hardly has the range and gaiety of "A Midsummer Night's Dream" rather 'tis more of a boringly repetitive scale which even since that leftmost "high note" remains essentially directionless: And given Gold not having gone "off the scale" throughout, 'tis rather like a musical composition that one might deem as an étude entitled "Gold in Seven-Week Bars" perhaps by Mendelssohn. So intrigued are we by Gold's seven weeks of stalemate that we've put together the following graphic (likely an analytical global Gold first) of price displayed in seven week bars from the All-Time High of 2089 in August 2020-to-date, (which is from 99 weeks ago across 15 bars). Regardless, whether we again reprise Isaak's "Goin' Nowhere" or even reach back to The Vandellas' "Nowhere to Run", Gold these days clearly exemplifies being on the Talking Heads' "Road to Nowhere". Did you know - and if you truly follow the price of Gold you knauseatingly know - that the 12-point price range (rounded to the nearest whole point) of 1836-1848 has traded within each of the past seven consecutive weeks? A mere glance at the above Gold Scoreboard - whilst without such level of detail - basically bears that out.
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